Based on the past 10 Championship seasons, the average points of those securing a place in the top two has been 92.4, or 93 should you wish to round-up for simplicity and peace of mind.
Leeds and Sheffield United are 17 points shy of that mark, and require 1.7 points per game over the remainder of the campaign to get there, while Burnley are 19 adrift and need 1.9, and Sunderland 25 and 2.5 – further emphasising the turn of events that needs to transpire for the Black Cats to get over the line.
For reference, Leeds and Sheffield United have averaged 2.11 points per game this season, the Whites 2.3 over their past 10 and the Blades 2.4, while Burnley are on 2.05 for the campaign overall and 2.2 taking in their previous 10.
West Brom secured their place in the top flight in 2019-20 with just 83 points, as the lowest number within this sample size, whereas at the other end of the scale, Ipswich Town stormed over the line with 96 among second-placed teams.
Of course, that isn’t necessarily what’s required to make it, because ultimately all a runner-up needs to do is finish above the side in third by means of one point or even just goal difference – pertinent given how tight things currently are.
The average points recorded by third-placed teams over the past 10 seasons has been 85.1, which leaves 86 as a potential number to rubber-stamp promotion, but so close are the contenders in 2024-25, that seems a dangerously low target.
The highest points haul for a third-placed team in the Championship in the 21st century was Leeds last season with 90. There’s every chance that will be exceeded this term.
Leave a Reply